The SF 49er Observer

WIZolman

"We'll see them again in the playoffs." -- Coach Mike Singletary after a gut-wrenching week 3 loss to the Vikings.

QB Rating this season....

Shaun Hill 79.6
Alex Smith 79.5 (including 3 TDs vs. Houston's Prevent Defense.)

Nate Davis ???

With all due respect to the 49ers, the team that I love, and to Mike Singletary, I must bow to the words of Jim Mora which are very relevant to the current playoff situation of the San Francisco 49ers.

Copyright @ 2009
All Rights Reserved

WIZolman

...a SF 49er Observer Editorial.

Mike Singletary -- A Man at a Crossroads

There is a classic scene in the movie "The Godfather II" in which Michael Corleone (Al Pacino) attempts to dissuade his wife Kay (Diane Keaton) from leaving him and taking the kids with her. He looks her right in the eye and says, "I can change...I know I have the power to change". He knew he would never change his philosophy, but to keep things running smoothly, he was willing to at least give the appearance of being capable of making important changes.

We now have Mike Singletary in the role of Michael Corleone and 49er fans in the role of Kay. Yesterday's embarrassing offensive performance against the Texans in the first half in the 24-21 loss, had to have made it very clear to Samurai Mike that his dream of having a team that goes out and hits them in the mouth applies only to his defense. His "smash mouth" power running offense that will dominate a team on the ground is only an illusion with this group.

This 49er offensive line has made it abundantly clear that it is not physically capable of being a dominant power running team and pass protecting at the same time. It also exposed Shaun Hill's limitations within such a system. So where does Singletary go from here? First, he must elevate Alex Smith, who gave his finest performance as a 49er QB to the starter position. But that is only the beginning.

Not often is a team capable of changing horses in mid-stream in such a defining way. I have been a Shaun Hill supporter for a long time but it has become clear that his ability to move the team was more suited to a Mike Martz offense which also left him exposed to 7 step drops and mucho sacks. Unfortunately for Shaun, the vanilla offense Jimmy Raye developed for Singletary's dream became a nightmare and he looks nothing like the confident QB who played so well in the past.

Singletary must adapt his offense to the talents and abilities of his players and he is very lucky. This offensive roster is tailor made for a wide open spread formation that uses 3 and 4 receiver formations. Michael Crabtree is sensational and he and Josh Morgan could well be the star receivers of the future for this team. Getting Brandon Jones and Jason HIll off the practice squad and into their receiver roles is vital to offensive success. These four receivers should get the majority of playing time. Isaac Bruce is ready for Social Security and should be limited in his action in this his final season.

The tight end position is outstanding. Vernon Davis is turning in an All-Pro season, and Delanie Walker does everything well, from blocking to receiving to running back kicks. With these two guys performing so well, that makes six (6) very good receivers for Smith to choose from.

As to the backfield, we know that Frank Gore is a great runner who gives 100% all the time. Frank is also an excellent receiver out of the backfield, a role that both he and Michael Robinson can handle very well. Both are good blockers and top notch receivers. Last season, MIchael caught 17 passes for 201 yards for a 11.9 average per reception which was good enough for # in the NFL among RBs. Apparently, Singletary forgot to pass that message along to Jimmy Raye and this year the team has ignored Robinson much like Nolan did.

In my opinion, Glen Coffee is only a decent runner who is a so-so blocker and who makes too many rookie mistakes. Glen needs to sit and watch and I'd put him in cold storage.

A spread offense with Gore and Robinson as the featured backs utilized often as receivers and in the Wildcat role would be an ideal mix with and complement to the excellent wide receiver corps. Gore is already taking direct snaps and Robinson is a former QB who can pass and run the option. These two featured in such a way provide versatility and defensive problems for other teams expecting to face a smash mouth offense.

I was dismayed at Jimmy Raye's play calling until they replaced Hill with Smith and changed the offensive philosophy. It then became very apparent to me that Jimmy knows what he is doing and was only keeping the offense as vanilla as yogurt to please his boss. The 49er offense in the second half vs. Houston reminded me of the Niners of old, who would move up and down the field at will with sharp, crisp passing.

There is one more change Singletary must implement now. There is a kid sitting on the bench in Nate Davis, who has shown in what little time he was able to get on the field, the exact talents needed to run a successful spread offense. He has a rocket arm, yet has demonstrated the ability to take something off his passes. He has poise and confidence and may well be the future star at QB for the Niners. The team had no fear in getting the rookie Crabtree on to the field right away. Give Nate an equal opportunity.

When Joe Montana was a rookie, Bill Walsh sat him for awhile, then he started inserting him in games with specific plays in mind designed to achieve success. Bill did this to build his confidence and prepare him for the next season when he knew he would be the starter. Alex Smith may well be the man to play the role of Steve DeBerg, who was a top passer but lacked the ability to pull off the big win. Alex deserves his chance now, but Singletary needs to prepare for the inevitable and elevate Nate Davis to #2 QB.

OK, Mike. The ball is in your court. You still have a smash mouth defense. It's time to show your gentle side, Mike, and instead of running over your opponents, just slice and dice them. Do you have the Power to Change, Mike? The whole world is watching!

Copyright @ 2009
All Rights Reserved

WIZolman

photo: Michael Maloney, SF Chronicle

San Francisco 49ers (2-0) vs. Minnesota Vikings (2-0)

This Sunday, the 49ers face their first opportunity to prove to the doubters that THIS TEAM is for real. Winning five of the last seven games last season despite a 7-step crazed Offensive Coordinator was no small feat. Mike Singletary is no ordinary coach, however.

For those of us who watched him play his entire career for the Bears, and who were privileged enough to see a true master of his craft at work, this was not at all surprising. Mike Singletary worked harder and demonstrated more determination than any player I have ever seen, and I've seen a lot including Jim Brown and Jerry Rice, two others who rank with Singletary in this category. It is their incredible powers of the mind, their ability to will things to happen in their favor, much like Tiger Woods in golf, that set them apart.

The Niners are 2-0, and it has been a pleasure to watch Singletary's mental brilliance as he deals with a variety of situations. He has everyone convinced that the Niners are three runs and a cloud of dust... He is so honest that everyone, especially the media, believes him. He WANTS the 49ers to be known as a running team. He wants the rest of the league to believe that Shaun Hill is barely able to throw a ball and that passing is an afterthought at best, something the Niners do only in desperation.

Poor Shaun is the most underrated and maligned QB in the NFL -- by far. No matter how well he performs or how much he wins, people have been conned into believing he has no arm strength (Noodle Arm is the nickname of choice) but he has heart. He has heart AND plenty of arm strength. Against the Cards, Hill lofted a beautiful 50-yard pass to Isaac Bruce, right on the money.

What is the truth? Is he a QB that Singletary keeps in the closet because he is inept, or is it because Singletary KNOWS he has a winner -- a guy with character and heart. Hill has a Won/Loss record of 9-3 (6-0 at home).

Last season, Hill finished 12th in the NFL with an excellent passer rating of 87.5, ahead of QBs like Eli Manning, McNabb, Cutler, Edwards, Delhomme, Campbell, Garrard, Favre, Flacco, Collins and Roethlisberger, among others. Passer rating measures efficiency.

In just over half a season, Hill threw 64.2% of his passes for over 2,000 yards, an average of 227 yards per game. He threw 13 TD passes with 8 interceptions. That would translate to over 3,600 yards for a full season. Pretty good for a Noodle Arm.

When the 49ers ran into trouble against Arizona (ran might be an exaggeration), Hill stepped right up and led the Niners on a 15 play TD drive, throwing 12 times and doing a great impersonation of a QB who knows what's up.

Someone posted this comparison on a forum that, although Hill has only started 12 games, gives some insight as to the level of his performance thus far. This will raise some eyebrows:

Accuracy
1. Steve Young 64.3 comp %
2. Shaun Hill 64.2 comp %
3. Joe Montana 63.2 comp %
4. Jeff Garcia 61.6 comp %

Highest TD ratio
1. Steve Young 1 TD every 15.1 attempts
2. Joe Montana 1 TD every 19.0 attempts
3. Shaun Hill 1 TD every 19.3 attempts
4. Jeff Garcia 1 TD every 19.7 attempts

Lowest INT ratio
1. Shaun Hill 1 INT every 47.1 attempts
2. Jeff Garcia 1 INT every 44.3 attempts
3. Joe Montana 1 INT every 38.8 attempts
4. Steve Young 1 INT every 38.8 attempts

QB Rating
1. Steve Young 96.8 QB Rating
2. Joe Montana 92.3 QB Rating
3. Shaun Hill 90.1 QB Rating
4. Jeff Garcia 87.5 QB Rating

Keep making the world believe that Hill can barely walk or think as long as you can, Mike. I know how you think. I, too, was born on October 9.

No matter how you slice it, Shaun Hill has performed at a winning level as a 49er quarterback. The first two games of this season he has a passer rating of 87.9, has passed for 353 yards with a TD and NO interceptions. Most impressive is his toughness and determination. He's a no-nonsense guy who doesn't care about the limelight -- the perfect team player. He just wants to win. Reminds me of an old Bears linebacker.

photo: Lacy Atkins, SF Chronicle

Copyright @ 2009
All Rights Reserved

WIZolman

The 49ers opened their 2009 season at the Stick with an impressive 23-10 win over Seattle's walking wounded. Camp Singletary appears to have been a huge success as the Niners outhit and physically dominated the Seahawks. For the second week in a row this team came out of the game virtually injury free while Seahawk players were scattered over the field like confetti.

Matt Maiocco of the Santa Rosa Press Democrat has started a new weekly feature for this season -- a video recap of each game. We will present them to you each week.

Copyright @ 2009
All Rights Reserved

WIZolman

Jim Rome sits down with 49ers QB Shaun Hill to discuss the Niners' great opening day road upset of the Arizona Cardinals. Hill led the 49ers on a late 4th quarter 80-yard drive to cement the victory.

WIZolman

Quarterbacks (3)

Shaun Hill
Alex Smith
Nate Davis

Running backs (4)

Frank Gore
Moran Norris
Michael Robinson
Glen Coffee

Receivers (6)

Isaac Bruce
Josh Morgan
Arnaz Battle
Jason Hill
Micheal Spurlock
Brandon Jones

Tight ends (2)

Vernon Davis
Delanie Walker

Offensive line (8)

Joe Staley
David Baas
Eric Heitmann
Chilo Rachal
Adam Snyder
Tony Wragge
Barry Sims
Cody Wallace

Defensive linemen (7)

Isaac Sopoaga
Aubrayo Franklin
Justin Smith
Kentwan Balmer
Demetric Evans
Ray McDonald
Ricky Jean-Francois.

Linebackers (9)

Patrick Willis
Manny Lawson
Takeo Spikes
Parys Haralson
Jeff Ulbrich
Ahmad Brooks
Scott McKillop
Marques Harris
Diyral Briggs

Cornerbacks (5)

Nate Clements
Dre’ Bly
Tarell Brown
Shawntae Spencer
Marcus Hudson

Safeties (5)
Michael Lewis
Dashon Goldson
Mark Roman
Reggie Smith
Curtis Taylor

Specialists

K Joe Nedney
P Andy Lee
LS Brian Jennings
KR/ PR Allen Rossum

Copyright @ 2009
All Rights Reserved

WIZolman

Nate Davis - #7

The Next Great San Francisco 49er QB

I love Mike Singletary. He is the perfect man for the job of returning the San Francisco 49ers to their former greatness. I especially feel close to the man, quite possibly because we share the same birthdate -- October 9. That makes Mike a Libra, a man dedicated to fairness, able to see both sides of the question, and a man to whom "balance" is a key word in any equation.

Mike is now faced with a dilemma. Shaun Hill is a serviceable quarterback, an excellent game manager, a fairly accurate passer with a soft arm, and a leader. Alex Smith came to the 49ers with great physical ability but no natural instincts for the position. Alex continues to take way too long to set up and deliver the ball. He makes very slow decisions which results in a very slow delivery. His passing is scattershot at best and while he has a strong arm, he is and continues to be very inaccurate. The game has never slowed down for Alex. He will NEVER be a reliable quarterback for the 49ers.

Enter Nate Davis. In two games he has demonstrated that he has a rocket arm and makes plays that the other two guys simply cannot; he is mobile and can make throws on the run the others cannot, and he makes excellent decisions. I don't care that he has only faced backups -- his ability is right there for all to see.

Most important of all is his poise. In four years, Alex Smith has continually shown that deer-in-the-headlights quality that frustrates 49er fans. Many blame his failure to excel at QB on the 49ers. They say he has been ruined by them due to having too many offensive coordinators, a poor supporting cast, etc. I say that is baloney (bologna to my Italian readers). In reading the forums and comments of many of the newer and younger 49er fans who don't even have a clue as to our winning tradition, beg and plead not to rush Davis into the fray. I read comments saying he's our QB for 2010, 2011, and even 2012.

Come on 49er fans, where is your mojo? Just because Alex Smith fell flat on his face doesn't mean that every rookie QB is incapable of starting in their first season. I think back to the greatest 49er team of all, the 1984 squad that went 18-1, the only loss being on a terrible pass interference call on Eric Wright that gave a game to the Steelers. That squad faced a young 2nd year QB, playing his first full season as a starter -- Dan Marino. The year before in his rookie season he had started only 9 games, yet threw for 20 TDs and 2210 yards. In his first full season in 1984, he threw for 5,084 yards and 48 TDs. I remember another rookie QB, Ben Roethlisberger, who had a very successful rookie season.

There is one inescapable fact. If a player is great, he can overcome just about all obstacles. Nate Davis is dyslexic, but hasn't let that stop him. In my opinion, nothing will stop this kid from greatness. Mike Singletary made one very telling observation -- that Nate was "too composed", "too calm". That quality is the hallmark of great quarterbacks.

I am now in my 64th season as a 49er fan, having seen every quarterback in Niner history from the great Frankie Albert up to the present and consider myself to be a pretty good judge of quarterbacking talent. Nate Davis possesses the most talent and ability to be seen in a 49er quarterback since Steve Young. It makes no sense to hold him back. We discovered a gem, let's polish it and put it on display.

Attention Mike Singletary -- are you listening???

WIZolman

Shaun Hill, 49er Quarterback

Between the solid play of Shaun Hill, who played ten (10) plays, completing 2 for 2 for 41 yards, both to TE Vernon Davis, and scrambled for nine yards showing poise and leadership, and the 7 for 9 passing for 98 yards and a TD by solid veteran QB Damon Huard, came the meat of the sandwich, Alex Smith. I was very hopeful that the reports out of camp were true and that Alex was really making strides. Unfortunately, that was before he took the field when the 49ers opened the 2009 season with a preseason victory over the Denver Broncos.

It has always been true that he possesses a strong arm, however, against Denver he showed the same lack of poise and confidence that has hung over his head his entire pro career. Alex takes too long to make decisions, way too long -- whether it is making up his mind to to pass, to whom to pass, or when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. He simply makes slow decisions. His amateurish attempted jump pass to Glenn Coffee was a perfect example. To say I was thoroughly disappointed in his performance is an understatement. This guy with all the physical talent in the world, simply lacks the natural instincts for the position. It's a conclusion that is inescapable. When Alex first came to the 49ers, Jerry Rice took a long look at him and said, "He is not the answer". Jerry was right.

Yes it is true that Smith has had all kinds of disadvantages -- multiple offensive coordinators, a lack of talent at the wide receiver position until this season, injuries, etc. However, each time he takes the field the same problems exists. His college coach hit the nail on the head when he said that the only way Alex learns the position is to repeat things over and over again. That is an admission that the position is not instinctual, and that he simply lacks the natural instincts so necessary for success. Natural instincts cannot be taught. You either have them or you don't. Unfortunately, Alex doesn't.

It was very clear that Shaun Hill has the poise and game management skills that Alex so sorely lacks. Mike Singletary's decision is really not a hard one. Shaun Hill will be the 49er QB for 2009. "He's great at managing the game," Singletary said of Hill Friday night. "You know he can manage a game, but he can also throw the ball downfield. … How consistent, and on what basis? That's something we still have to look at, but we pretty much know what's there."